How should one (not) make decisions 2
Four typical mistakes that we make during our decision-making
-That's something I could never do.
What is burning you out right now is what you need to do. That may be the decision you have to make.
In their book, "Decisive," Chip and Dan Heath list four typical mistakes we make during our decision-making.
Short term emotions
Overconfidence
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Short term emotions
The Albanian higher education system has faced a shortcoming for the past few years. The current formula puts senior students before a choice, and they must pick ten alternatives. The system conditions the majority of them to study the program listed as their second, third, or, in the worst case, their tenth favorite subject to study in college. This system has a direct impact on their academic performance and success. Some of them are ready to quit from the first year.
Why don't they quit? Due to the temporary factors, short-term emotions. They fear if their parents will support them, their financial security will be at stake, and they believe that they have failed at this or that I am not good enough. The truth in most cases is that a talented student in Literature becomes a Maths or Physics student.
In her bestseller on decision-making, Susan Welsh suggests a 10/10/10 model analysis. This model encourages us to think about a decision in three different time frames: How will you feel about it ten minutes from now, ten months from now, and ten years from now?
In 10 minutes, deciding to change your study field and "wasting" a year of your life seems like the end of the world. In 10 months, you may still have doubts. But in 10 years of deciding to change your study field and work in your favorite profession, you will congratulate yourself.
This way has worked for me. After finishing my studies, I had a dilemma about whether to continue working in my field of expertise (where I graduated with excellent results) or dedicate myself to another domain.
When I made my decision, in the first 10 minutes, I could not believe it. Ten months later, I still had doubts. But now, after 20 years, it was one of the best and most courageous decisions I have ever made.
If I had relied on my short-term emotions, I would not have experienced my life and contribution to my family and society in the one I have it.
Our emotions boil over when we are about to make a hard decision. We keep playing the same argument in our heads over and over again. We argue with ourselves, decide, and then return to the first decision. If we wrote down all these thoughts on paper, we would find nothing new, just confusion about our emotions mixed up with the same arguments or fears.
Short-term emotions damage decision-making. They can paralyze you, and in the worst-case scenario, they can lead you to the wrong choice. I am not saying we should ignore our emotions. On the contrary, we need to put them in the light of a broader perspective.
Remember: What will this decision bring ten minutes, ten months, and ten years from now?
- Overconfidence
What will the future be like? This question has always been a much sought-after "entertainment," trying to predict the future.
Leaders, in general, face this question often. We tend to answer when there is none, trying to paint a future that will never be a reality.
We often are overly confident about what the future will hold. Studies suggest that decisions on the initial diagnoses made by physicians often are wrong in 40% of the cases. If a decision made by a professional in the field is terrible in a considerable amount of time, we should research and be confident about the right decision.
When making important life decisions, we would seek the opinion of more than a person. In the case of a business decision, we may need to test the market for a while. In the case of medical decisions, we consider a second opinion.
None of us likes to be wrong. On the other hand, we know that we will only sometimes hit the target. We will be wrong sometimes, and this preparation process starts by humbly admitting that we can't see the future crystal clear. We need to take into consideration the desired success and the unpleasant failure.
Results can be unpredictable from a single stand and a broader spectrum. The ability to neglect this difference is called overconfidence.
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